A.1. CMC Seminar Paper: Structure of the Essay (1’200-1’500 words) a) Introduction to CMC case study (max 250 words) b) Your Core “What If Sentence” (max 50 words) c) Counter-Factual Scenario-Building c) 1. Probable Scenario / ‘surprise free’ (max 300 words) c) 2. Possible Scenario / ‘optimistic’ or ‘pessimistic’ (max 300 words) c) 3. Preferable Scenario / from the Soviet or American perspective (max 300 words) d) Conclusion (max 300 words) e) Bibliography (no word count) 1. Title – The title is succinct, interesting, and engaging and it clearly explains the project. 2 2. Introduction – Introduction on CMC is well formulated, relevant and informative. Core facts are wellstated. 5 3. ‘WHAT IF Sentence’ – The core ‘WHAT IF Sentence’ is logical and clear, without a double meaning. It is grammatically correct, consists of a single question and articulates well the course of action. (Nota Bene: Student cannot use instructor’s examples from the PPP). 3 4. Forecasting & Scenariobuilding – The scenario is relevant. Important themes are hypothesized and developed so that reader understands well the anticipated follow-up of events. 10 5. Foreign Policy and Diplomacy – The interest of the core countries involved, decisions of their governments and negotiations are well pointed out, discussed and assessed in the narrative. They are rational and logical (US, Soviet Union, Cuba, Germany, NATO allies, UNO). 10 6. Conclusion – Student refers to historical context and insights from the IR Theory on the CMC. Student discusses the rational of the scenario and assesses critically its effects on the international system. 10 7. Technical Aspects – The paper is organized into major sections. – There are no mistakes in writing & grammar, spelling & punctuation. – The paper is clean, legible, well-formatted including page numbering, professional in appearance, and aesthetically pleasing. – Total number of words is mentioned on the first page. – 7-10 sources are appropriately referenced in the bibliography; Internet sources contain date retrieved 8. Nota bene: Late Submission (negative points) – The softcopy of the assignment is sent by email to the course instructor before the deadline. – For late submission, a total of up to 10 points can be deduced from the Course Work grade u can do any scenario except those five because they are already taken: Scenario 0 “What if Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev had publicly announced in Summer of 1962 that Soviet Union and the Cuban Government of Fidel Castro had come to agreement over the construction of military sites in Cuba?” Probable scenario (‘surprise free’): … Possible scenario (‘pessimistic’ or ‘optimistic’): … Preferable scenario (from the American or Soviet perspective): … Scenario 1 “What if the American U2 spy-plane filming the Soviet nuclear construction field in Cuba was shot down by Soviet antiaircraft missile on October 14, 1962?” Probable scenario (‘surprise free’): … Possible scenario (‘pessimistic’ or ‘optimistic’): … Preferable scenario (from the American or Soviet perspective) “What if the US spy-plane had not recorded Soviet nuclear sites in Cuba, and Soviets would have had their nuclear bases operational by mid-December 1962?” ”What if the Soviets, after the Americans had discovered their nuclear site and addressed ultimatum, had not pulled out their nuclear missiles from Cuba?” “What if Soviet ships, carrying nuclear missiles, had forced the US naval blockade on their way to reach Cuba on October 24, 1962?”